This methodology for software development time estimation accounts for realistic constraints on human productivity. Rather than viewing estimation as mystical or purely statistical, it advocates for analyzing how time actually gets spent in organizations.

Human Time Constraints

Six fundamental human realities consume work hours:

• Vacation and holidays
• Illness
• Psychological inertia
• Transition inefficiency between tasks
• Social/meeting obligations
• Employee turnover

These aren't failures but natural limitations deserving acknowledgment.

Product Time Allocation

Beyond human constraints, work is categorized into:

• Product roadmap features
• Technical debt
• Innovation tasks
• Customer retention work

Not all efforts contribute equally to core development.

Supporting Activities Around Coding

Actual programming represents only one portion of effort. Supporting activities include:

• Product meetings
• Quality practices like testing
• Bug fixes
• Methodology ceremonies (standups, retrospectives, code freezes)

Risk Factors

Two risk categories deserve consideration:

Individual skill variation: Experience differences, architectural alignment, code quality

Product uncertainty: Requirement changes, discovery, unknowns

Team Aggregation

Teams combine individuals with varying contribution capacities—leads mentoring consume less coding time, juniors research unfamiliar codebases, veterans work efficiently.

Conclusion

By carefully accounting for observable time allocations rather than assumptions, teams can make credible commitments to leadership. This requires contextualized analysis unique to each organization.